Browse Definitions:
Definition

Bayesian logic

Named for Thomas Bayes, an English clergyman and mathematician, Bayesian logic is a branch of logic applied to decision making and inferential statistics that deals with probability inference: using the knowledge of prior events to predict future events. Bayes first proposed his theorem in his 1763 work (published two years after his death in 1761), An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances . Bayes' theorem provided, for the first time, a mathematical method that could be used to calculate, given occurrences in prior trials, the likelihood of a target occurrence in future trials. According to Bayesian logic, the only way to quantify a situation with an uncertain outcome is through determining its probability.

Bayes' Theorem is a means of quantifying uncertainty. Based on probability theory, the theorem defines a rule for refining an hypothesis by factoring in additional evidence and background information, and leads to a number representing the degree of probability that the hypothesis is true. To demonstrate an application of Bayes' Theorem, suppose that we have a covered basket that contains three balls, each of which may be green or red. In a blind test, we reach in and pull out a red ball. We return the ball to the basket and try again, again pulling out a red ball. Once more, we return the ball to the basket and pull a ball out - red again. We form a hypothesis that all the balls are all, in fact, red. Bayes' Theorem can be used to calculate the probability (p) that all the balls are red (an event labeled as "A") given (symbolized as "|") that all the selections have been red (an event labeled as "B"):

p(A|B) = p{A + B}/p{B}

Of all the possible combinations (RRR, RRG, RGG, GGG), the chance that all the balls are red is 1/4; in 1/8 of all possible outcomes, all the balls are red AND all the selections are red. Bayes' Theorem calculates the probability that all the balls in the basket are red, given that all the selections have been red as .5 (probabilities are expressed as numbers between 0. and 1., with "1." indicating 100% probability and "0." indicating zero probability).

The International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA) was founded in 1992 with the purpose of promoting the application of Bayesian methods to problems in diverse industries and government, as well as throughout the Sciences. The modern incarnation of Bayesian logic has evolved beyond Bayes' initial theorem, developed further by the 18th century French theorist Pierre-Simon de Laplace, and 20th and 21st century practitioners such as Edwin Jaynes, Larry Bretthorst, and Tom Loredo. Current and possible applications of Bayesian logic include an almost infinite range of research areas, including genetics, astrophysics, psychology, sociology, artificial intelligence ( AI ), data mining , and computer programming .

This was last updated in January 2006

Continue Reading About Bayesian logic

Join the conversation

4 comments

Send me notifications when other members comment.

By submitting you agree to receive email from TechTarget and its partners. If you reside outside of the United States, you consent to having your personal data transferred to and processed in the United States. Privacy

Please create a username to comment.

> defines a rule for refining an hypothesis by factoring in a

s/an/a
Cancel
You wrote: "Of all the possible combinations (RRR, RRG, RGG, GGG), the chance that all the balls are red is 1/4." Where does that come from? If the initial conditions were random, the chance that all three balls were red is 1/8; the chance that all three were green is 1/8; and the chance of two red and one green is 3/8 (RRG,RGR, GRR); and the chance of one red and 2 green is 3/8 (RGG,GRG,GGR).
Cancel
There seems to be more than one mistake here....
One factor is that a basket with only one color inside is not going to yield more one than one result.
Cancel
How would you like a way that with one-click you can get crazy profits?
Without any previous trading experience?
http://tinyurl.com/oljawde
Cancel

-ADS BY GOOGLE

File Extensions and File Formats

Powered by:

SearchCompliance

  • cyborg anthropologist

    A cyborg anthropologist is an individual who studies the interaction between humans and technology, observing how technology can ...

  • RegTech

    RegTech, or regulatory technology, is a term used to describe technology that is used to help streamline the process of ...

  • conduct risk

    Conduct risk is the prospect of financial loss to an organization that is caused by the actions of an organization's ...

SearchSecurity

  • application whitelisting

    Application whitelisting is the practice of identifying applications that have been deemed safe for execution and restricting all...

  • security

    Security, in information technology (IT), is the defense of digital information and IT assets against internal and external, ...

  • insider threat

    An insider threat is a malicious hacker (also called a cracker or a black hat) who is an employee or officer of a business, ...

SearchHealthIT

  • HIPAA Privacy Rule

    The Standards for Privacy of Individually Identifiable Health Information, commonly known as the HIPAA Privacy Rule, establishes ...

  • HIPAA business associate agreement (BAA)

    Under the U.S. Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996, a HIPAA business associate agreement (BAA) is a ...

  • telemedicine

    Telemedicine is the remote delivery of healthcare services, such as health assessments or consultations, over the ...

SearchDisasterRecovery

  • data recovery

    Data recovery restores data that has been lost, accidentally deleted, corrupted or made inaccessible. Learn how data recovery ...

  • disaster recovery plan (DRP)

    A company's disaster recovery policy is enhanced with a documented DR plan that formulates strategies, and outlines preparation ...

  • fault-tolerant

    Systems with integrated fault tolerance are designed to withstand multiple hardware failures to ensure continuous availability.

SearchStorage

  • data deduplication

    Deduplication retains one unique data instance to reduce storage and bandwidth consumed by remote backups, replication and ...

  • byte

    In most computer systems, a byte is a unit of data that is eight binary digits long. Bytes are often used to represent a ...

  • Secure Digital card (SD card)

    SD cards use flash memory to provide nonvolatile storage. They are more rugged than traditional storage media and are used in ...

SearchSolidStateStorage

  • flash file system

    Flash file systems are designed specifically for memory devices. A well-designed flash device and flash file system ensure ...

  • IOPS (input/output operations per second)

    IOPS measures the maximum number of reads and writes to non-contiguous storage. It is not an actual benchmark since vendor ...

  • eMMC (embedded MultiMediaCard)

    An embedded MultiMediaCard (eMMC) is a small storage device made up of NAND flash memory and a simple storage controller.

SearchCloudStorage

  • RESTful API

    A RESTful application program interface breaks down a transaction to create a series of small modules, each of which addresses an...

  • cloud storage infrastructure

    Cloud storage infrastructure is the hardware and software framework that supports the computing requirements of a private or ...

  • Zadara VPSA and ZIOS

    Zadara Storage provides block, file or object storage with varying levels of compute and capacity through its ZIOS and VPSA ...

Close