Browse Definitions :
Definition

prediction error

Contributor(s): Ivy Wigmore

A prediction error is the failure of some expected event to occur. When predictions fail, humans can use metacognitive functions, examining prior predictions and failures and deciding, for example, whether there are correlations and trends, such as consistently being unable to foresee outcomes accurately in particular situations. Applying that type of knowledge can inform decisions and improve the quality of future predictions.

Predictive analytics software processes new and historical data to forecast activity, behavior and trends. The programs apply statistical analysis techniques, analytical queries and machine learning algorithms to data sets to create predictive models that quantify the likelihood of a particular event happening.

Errors are an inescapable element of predictive analytics that should also be quantified and presented along with any model, often in the form of a confidence interval that indicates how accurate its predictions are expected to be. Analysis of prediction errors from similar or previous models can help determine confidence intervals.

In artificial intelligence (AI), the analysis of prediction errors can help guide machine learning (ML), similarly to the way it does for human learning. In reinforcement learning, for example, an agent might use the goal of minimizing error feedback as a way to improve. Prediction errors, in that case, might be assigned a negative value and predicted outcomes a positive value, in which case the AI would be programmed to attempt to maximize its score. That approach to ML, sometimes known as error-driven learning, seeks to stimulate learning by approximating the human drive for mastery.

This was last updated in November 2018

Continue Reading About prediction error

Start the conversation

Send me notifications when other members comment.

Please create a username to comment.

-ADS BY GOOGLE

File Extensions and File Formats

SearchCompliance

  • compliance audit

    A compliance audit is a comprehensive review of an organization's adherence to regulatory guidelines.

  • regulatory compliance

    Regulatory compliance is an organization's adherence to laws, regulations, guidelines and specifications relevant to its business...

  • Whistleblower Protection Act

    The Whistleblower Protection Act of 1989 is a law that protects federal government employees in the United States from ...

SearchSecurity

  • orphan account

    An orphan account, also referred to as an orphaned account, is a user account that can provide access to corporate systems, ...

  • voice squatting (skill squatting)

    Voice squatting is an attack vector for voice user interfaces (VUIs) that exploits homonyms (words that sound the same but are ...

  • WPA3

    WPA3, also known as Wi-Fi Protected Access 3, is the third version of the security certification program developed by the Wi-Fi ...

SearchHealthIT

SearchDisasterRecovery

  • business continuity policy

    Business continuity policy is the set of standards and guidelines an organization enforces to ensure resilience and proper risk ...

  • business continuity and disaster recovery (BCDR)

    Business continuity and disaster recovery (BCDR) are closely related practices that describe an organization's preparation for ...

  • warm site

    A warm site is a type of facility an organization uses to recover its technology infrastructure when its primary data center goes...

SearchStorage

  • cache memory

    Cache memory, also called CPU memory, is high-speed static random access memory (SRAM) that a computer microprocessor can access ...

  • enterprise storage

    Enterprise storage is a centralized repository for business information that provides common data management, protection and data...

  • disk array

    A disk array, also called a storage array, is a data storage system used for block-based storage, file-based storage or object ...

Close